Real-time, interactive website for US-county level Covid-19 event risk assessment

Abstract

Large events and gatherings, particularly those taking place indoors, have been linked to multi-transmission events that have accelerated the pandemic spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). To provide real-time, geo-localized risk information, we developed an interactive online dashboard that estimates the risk that at least one individual with SARS-CoV-2 is present in gatherings of different sizes in the United States. The website combines documented case reports at the county level with ascertainment bias information obtained via population-wide serological surveys to estimate real time circulating, per-capita infection rates. These rates are updated daily as a means to visualize the risk associated with gatherings, including county maps and state-level plots. The website provides data-driven information to help individuals and policy-makers make prudent decisions (e.g., increasing mask wearing compliance and avoiding larger gatherings) that could help control the spread of SARS-CoV-2, particularly in hard-hit regions.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funding Statement

Research effort by JSW was enabled by support from grants from the Simons Foundation (SCOPE Award ID 329108), the Army Research Office (W911NF1910384), National Institutes of Health (1R01AI46592-01), National Science Foundation (1806606, 1829636, and 2032084), and additional support from the Charities Aid Foundation and The Marier Cunningham Foundation. Research effort by CA was enabled by the College of Design and College of Computing at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

Author Declarations

I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.

Yes

The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:

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All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.

Yes

I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).

Yes

I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.

Yes

Data Availability

Data Availability: Population demographics for US states and counties were obtained from the publicly available United States Census Bureau American Community Survey for 2018 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2019). State-level cases were obtained from CovidTracking.com, a project developed by Alexis Madrigal and colleagues at The Atlantic (The Atlantic Monthly Group, 2020). County-level cases were obtained from the New York Times github site (New York Times, 2020a).

Code availability: The website code is open source and available on Github: https://github.com/appliedbinf/covid19-event-risk-planner.

https://github.com/appliedbinf/covid19-event-risk-planner

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