Large events and gatherings, particularly those taking place indoors, have been linked to multi-transmission events that have accelerated the pandemic spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). To provide real-time, geo-localized risk information, we developed an interactive online dashboard that estimates the risk that at least one individual with SARS-CoV-2 is present in gatherings of different sizes in the United States. The website combines documented case reports at the county level with ascertainment bias information obtained via population-wide serological surveys to estimate real time circulating, per-capita infection rates. These rates are updated daily as a means to visualize the risk associated with gatherings, including county maps and state-level plots. The website provides data-driven information to help individuals and policy-makers make prudent decisions (e.g., increasing mask wearing compliance and avoiding larger gatherings) that could help control the spread of SARS-CoV-2, particularly in hard-hit regions.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Research effort by JSW was enabled by support from grants from the Simons Foundation (SCOPE Award ID 329108), the Army Research Office (W911NF1910384), National Institutes of Health (1R01AI46592-01), National Science Foundation (1806606, 1829636, and 2032084), and additional support from the Charities Aid Foundation and The Marier Cunningham Foundation. Research effort by CA was enabled by the College of Design and College of Computing at the Georgia Institute of Technology.
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Data Availability: Population demographics for US states and counties were obtained from the publicly available United States Census Bureau American Community Survey for 2018 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2019). State-level cases were obtained from CovidTracking.com, a project developed by Alexis Madrigal and colleagues at The Atlantic (The Atlantic Monthly Group, 2020). County-level cases were obtained from the New York Times github site (New York Times, 2020a).
Code availability: The website code is open source and available on Github: https://github.com/appliedbinf/covid19-event-risk-planner.